Graphic by Joseph Parillo, Graphic Designer
By Jonah Marshall, Staff Writer
As we ponder on what went wrong in the 2024 primary election for the Democratic Party, we find that the majority of candidates who won prior elections did not secure a majority of the vote but rather a plurality. This means that whoever the winner of an election is the candidate that received the highest number of votes. Ranked choice voting (RCV) could have potentially changed the outcomes of multiple races.
RCV allows voters to rank candidates in the order which they prefer. The most preferred candidate is marked first, then followed by second, third, fourth, and so on. If no candidate wins 50% of the vote, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. Voters who selected the eliminated candidate as their first choice then have their votes redistributed to their next preferred candidate. This process repeats until a candidate reaches 50%.
The problem.
In the 2024 Presidential election, Donald Trump won two key swing states with less than 50% of the vote counted. Wisconsin with 49.6% and Michigan with 49.7%, thereby winning the electoral college votes for both states.
There are also plurality wins in crucial Senate races.
In Pennsylvania, Democrat Bob Casey lost to Republican Dave McCormick 48.8% to 48.6%, leaving 2.7% of voters supporting minor party candidates.
In Michigan, Democrat Elissa Slotkin beat her Republican challenger Mike Rogers 48.6% to 48.3%.
Even in Wisconsin, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin beat her Republican challenger Eric Hovde 49.4% to 48.5% of the vote. Since this method is typically used to determine our political voices, the question is, would Ranked Choice Voting have changed these outcomes?
How does Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) work?
Still using the Pennsylvania Senate race, RCV would allow all voters to rank candidates by preference. A Republican voter might rank McCormick first, followed by minor party candidates, then Casey last. An independent voter might rank a third party candidate first, then Casey second, followed by other candidates. A Democratic voter may only rank Casey as their top choice.
If no candidate secures 50% of the vote, the candidate with the least support is eliminated, and those votes are reassigned to their next preferred choice. This process continues until one candidate reaches 50%.
How Can RCV Be Used In A General Election
A primary election is held months before the general election in November. This often excludes voters who do not identify as either Democrat or Republican. Several states have closed primaries where Independent voters need to declare a party as much as a month before the deadline, or be registered with one of the two major parties. Open primaries allow any registered voter to cast a ballot, but may still require the voter to ask for either Republican or Democrat ballot.
Adding ranked choice in the mix would allow voters to select their top four or five candidates to advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. The difference then would be that candidates would not advance if they only appealed to their side of the party. They’d need to campaign to the general public and have more moderate, middle-of-the-road policies to garner enough votes to advance them to the general.
This does not mean you have to pick different parties on your sheet. You can vote for all Democrats, Republicans, or Independents on your RCV ballot if you wish. What may end up happening is possibly the two candidates going into the general election may be both Democrats or Republicans, which is why it is crucial to vote to make sure your party leader that you want is represented. RCV has the added of benefit of a possible increase in voter turnout with people realizing now that their single vote may be the deciding factor.
Would have RCV changed the 2024 election results?
House and Senate races were extremely close. According to Kevin Navratil, Associate Professor of Political Science at Moraine Valley Community College, “The House of Representatives was decided by a few thousand votes in a few districts, so hypothetically ranked choice voting could have altered the outcome due to voters who voted third party, didn’t vote due to the choices.”
Professor Navratil further explains, “If certain states that happened to have close House races, such as Iowa, Pennsylvania, or Arizona, used Ranked Choice Voting then yes it is possible that Democrats could have won a few more seats and majority of the House. It is also possible that RCV could have led to Republicans winning more seats.” For example, in New York City’s 2021 mayoral race voter turnout reached its highest level in 30 years under Ranked Choice Voting. Professor Navratil emphasizes: “One of the biggest benefits of RCV is improved turnout because voters feel like their vote actually matters.”
What needs to happen
Rank choice voting needs to be implemented in every state for their state and federal election primaries. This will increase voter turnout and have candidates win their respective races with 50% or higher. As the 2024 elections showed, plurality victories leave many voters feeling unheard. RCV ensures that every vote counts until a candidate truly represents the majority of the people.
