There is hope for Democrats in 2026

Photo from Bloomberg

The Presidential election results left Democratic voters feeling defeated in 2024, with Republicans flying high after Trump won the election, flipped the Senate, and kept their majority in the House. However, it seems that these feelings will be reversed in 2026. Between special elections, polling results, candidates running for office, and precedent in political history, it seems that the midterms will offer hope for Democrats.

What the special elections are telling us 

A special election is when there is an election to fill a seat during a non-election period. These are held when a seat is vacated by a promotion to another post, through a resignation of the elected official, or the death of the official. During the special elections held in 2025. So far Democrats seem to be bouncing back. 

Wisconsin 

In the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, Democrat Susan Crawford won against her Republican challenger Brad Schimel, 55% to 45%. Wisconsin is a swing state Trump won 50.4% to 48.7%. This was also the race that was closely watched due to Elon Musk’s contributions. Musk poured in millions of dollars in hopes of getting Schimel elected. This result is not only a rejection of Trump in a state he won, but also a rejection of the oligarchs he has surrounded himself with throughout his second term.                                                              

Florida 

Although the Democratic Party lost in both special elections held for Congress, they were still able to outperform in the electoral race. In a special election held to replace Republican representative Matt Gaetz, Republican candidate, Jimmy Patronis, won against Democrat Gay Valimont. Even though Patronis won against Valimont, she still managed to win Escambia County, a county Trump won by nearly 20 points. In Florida’s sixth congressional district, Republican Randy Fine won against Democratic candidate Josh Weil in the race to replace Mike Waltz. This is another race where Democrats outperformed and Republicans underperformed, Waltz won 66.5% of the vote and his Democratic challenger won 33.5% of the vote in November of 2024. Fine won his race 56.68% to 42.69%. Showing Republican support decreased while Democratic support in a Trump-friendly district seems to be increasing. In September, Rashon Young won election in Flordia’s 40th congressional district and now will be the first Gen-Z person elected to the Florida House. Young’s former boss Lavon Bracy Davis won her state Senate race. While both of them were elected in safe Democratic seats, both candidates outperformed Harris in her bid for President. Young got 75.1% of the vote and Davis got 72.6% of the vote. When Harris ran she received 56.1% of the vote. This is a good sign because although these were safe democratic seats, their wins show that more young people are getting into politics leaving room for the next generation of leaders to step in. 

Pennsylvania 

In a special election Senate seat race, Democrats flipped Lancaster County for the first time in 136 years. James Andrew Malone won against Republican Josh Parsons 49.99% to 49.02%. Trump won this district by 16 points. 

Iowa’s two special state Senate elections

In the first state Senate special election, Democrat Mike Zimmer beat Republican Katie Whittington 51.72% to 48.08%. Trump won that district by over 20 points. In the second special election race for Iowa Senate, Democrat Catelin Drey beat Republican Christopher Prosch 55.2% to 44.8%, flipping the district Trump won by 20 points, and in effect getting rid of the Iowa Senate super-majority. It means that now instead of Republicans having two-thirds of the votes in the Senate chamber, Republican Governor Kim Reynolds will need at least one Democrat to confirm her nominees for any appointed positions like judges. Previously, Republicans had 66% of the votes in the Senate chamber which meant they did not need bi-partisan support for any of the governor’s appointees

Candidates running for Senate where Democrats are strong favorites to flip.

North Carolina Senate 

The future of North Carolina’s Democratic Party is looking bright ever since former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper entered the race. According to 270towin Cooper is ahead by 6%. Trump’s approval rating in the state is 45%. 

Maine Senate Race

Could Republican Senator Susan Collins lose her seat with her approval rating at 38% and disapproval rating at 55%? At a recently ribbon cutting ceremony, her constituents called, “Shame!” as they felt Collins did not fight enough over Medicaid cuts in Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” Democrats are crossing their fingers for Maine Governor Janet Mills to enter the race. Mills’ response is that her decision will be determined by November. Maine has a better chance for the Democratic Party compared to other states based on the fact that they chose Harris over Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

Democrats are also keeping an eye out for Texas, Alaska, and Iowa. Senator Joni Ernst just announced her retirement. The GOP primary race in Texas could be contentious, and if Ken Paxton beats Incumbent John Cornyn, it could open the door for a Democrat to finally snag a Senate seat for Texas. Democrats are also attempting to flip the Senate seat in Alaska that is occupied by Dan Sullivan. In order to gain the majority of the Senate, Democrats must flip four seats. 

Here’s what midterm election history has proven about the House of Representatives

During a midterm election, statistics have shown that since 1938, the party in the White House loses seats in the House of Representatives, losing at least four House seats. 

The only exceptions to this political history have been in 1998 and 2002. In 1998, Democrats gained five House seats following the unpopular impeachment attempt by Republicans against Bill Clinton. He had a 66% approval rating at the time. In the 2002 election, due to the September 11th attacks, Republicans gained eight seats during George W. Bush’s term who had an approval rating of 63%. Approval ratings have proven to be no safety net though in the midterms, Ronald Regan had an approval rating of 63% in 1986 and still lost five House seats. As of September 2025, president Trump’s job approval rating sits at 46.1% according to Real Clear Politics which reports on several polls, and averages the results. Looking at specific topics like the economy or inflation, and his approval in around 40% on those issues. In 2026, Democrats must flip three seats to win the majority in the House. 

If Democrats can maintain their current path, 2026 looks to be promising to take back some control in Congress, and act as a check on the President. There is a possibility that Democrats could flip both chambers. Their success will depend on what Democratic voters decide to do come Election Day.